During the month, there is no uptrend in oil prices. Even if there is an uptrend in first part of the month, it will be neutralized by the 2nd week. Commodity prices of all metals are showing a downtrend as well. Coal stocks will take a hit.
This was indeed the case. In fact, the downtrend in oil was just as predicted by this model. The metal prices were also down.
Stock prices for Sensex stocks and NIFTY 100 will show an uptrend as well.
This prediction went bad. Sensex went down from 26000 to 25000, with lowest closing level of 24000 on Jan 21. After Jan 21, there is an uptrend, but I can hardly claim credit for the same.
Almost all sectors will support this uptrend – Auto, Energy & Media stocks will end up on the higher side. Banks, FMCG, IT are also up, but not as much as the these 3 sectors. PSU banks are not as good, which means that private sector banks will be attractive. Within Media, EROS media is not looking good and it is best avoided.
There has been quite good news for Auto, but the past one month for BSE auto is still -9%. Power is down 7.4%. FMCG is down 4.6%. Bank NIFTY is down by 10%, but PSU Banks are really down by -23.80%. This means that while I got the overall trend wrong, the sub trends were right.
Metal stocks will be out of favour. Realty stocks are not doing well as well. Within realty stocks, Oberoi Realty is notably down.
Metals are down 6.70%. Realty down 11.6%. Oberoi reality is down 11%, but at one time was down almost 18%.
Construction related stocks – cement, paint seem up – ACC, Asian Paints & Berger Paint are looking good. Infra stocks – Bosch, Bharat Forge are also attractive.
ACC down 6%. Asian Paints is flat in this market (wow!) and Berger Paints actually went up from 260 to 270. Bharat Forge is also almost flat. Bosch went down steadily and this prediction was a failure.
Within automobiles, M&M took a hit last month after Supreme Court ruling on diesel automobiles. But it is likely to make a comeback. On the other hand, Maruti will continue to maintain momentum.
M&M was flat – 1260 to 1260 in this situation. Maruti was down from 4600 to 4100, which is a hit of about 10%. This was a failure of prediction.
During the month starting February 2, 2016, there is no major impetus for both NIFTY and SENSEX. this is expected to be range bound from now. Still, on an overall basis, SENSEX will show an uptrend from February 3rd till February 27th. From 27th a downturn is shown, however, I will cover this more during March analysis.
The trigger dates for changes in trend for NIFTY is February 11th and February 21st. Sensex is better than NIFTY during the month for returns.
Keep away from realty sector stocks. This sector is completely out of favour now.
PSU Banks will also show downturn and will be best avoidable. Bank NIFTY is not showing a really bad downturn, which essentially means that private sector banks will outperform their PSU counterparts and actually could rally.
Taking the baseline of NIFTY, Media and FMCG sectors will be better than NIFTY returns. NIFTY IT will be better than NIFTY returns. At this time, overall NIFTY 200, NIFTY 500 stocks will be doing well than the main NIFTY index. This means that there are gems within NIFTY 200 and NIFTY500 that will givep positive returns in the market. Keep an eye on these and you can hedge your losses.
Pharma sector is showing many postive signals during the month. Gold will be up. Gold related indices and ETFs will also be up. Other metal stocks being traded in BSE and NSE are not showing any support and will be down.
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