Stock markets in India are essentially flat compared to where they were at the beginning of May. It is a very tentative recovery in the market with couple of pretty huge drops in the market in the first week of May. It does not look like a recovery though, since the overall sentiment of the market is now tracking Modi government’s sentiments. This is likely to be chaotic till mid of June after which the marketing and communication machinery of the government will be overactive in reaching out to the people.
Bharat Forge did not do well, it showing a sawtooth pattern, rather than the uptrend that was predicted. ABB did well, as predicted and there is more uptrend. ABAN was flat. Century Textiles was pretty interesting case. It went 8% the day May blog was posted, but subsequently went down. Auto sector was indeed flat, but Maruti did manage to get investor attention after the 1st week. It gave 6% returns subsequently. Sentiment in IT was indeed up. While the three month returns has been negative, the last one month and one week returns have been pretty good. Pharma was up, but Cadila was down compared to beginning of the month. Banks were predicted to be good. This prediction went wrong for PSU banks and overall flat for bank nifty which means that there was uptrend for non PSU banks. ICICI lost out of this rally, as predicted and went down by 6%. HDFC, HDFC Bank both went down a little, but then post 1st week of May, gave good returns during the month themselves. Thus, overall predictions were pretty good, if not extremely accurate.
The overall market movement will follow May trends till 15th. Post 15th of the month, the market will show upward movement in both Sensex and NIFTY with specific dates being 9th June, 22nd June. Unfortunately, some of the other important dates are falling on a weekend. During this month, automobile business will be good. Brisk buying will show up in quarterly results in the subsequent months. The sectors to watch out for are: Telecom, media, hotels and hospitality, FMCG, food business and oil business. Investor sentiment will be weaker in airlines and export sector. FMCG is up – Colgate Palmolive is predicted to be more up than down in this month. Jyoti Lab will be higher up as well. General populace will spend more on items of luxury and will eat out more and spend more. Britannia will be up and there will be focus on Jubilant foods as well. They will also spend on clothes and textiles – Arvind Mills will show a major movement. Lovable will be up, but finally will end up flat. Page Industries and Grasim will also be good. It will also be good for paint industries – Asian Paints & Berger etc.
Adani Industries will be down in the month.
Oil will go down this month and the shares of oil marketing companies will also not find favour. Banks, publications & newspapers and companies making electrical appliances.
This month will be good for non PSU banks – e.g. Axis Bank. Selling will be there in PSU banks.
On the metals side, my predictions have not been going well, mainly because the metal cycle is of a downturn. This is why even though there is an uptrend predicted, Tata Steel, SAIL, Jindal are not doing well, even though stars are indicating the same. Gold will fall further before it finally will start moving up in few months. Silver should improve and continue on an upward trajectory through June and July.
Pharma companies are also predicted to be good – Cipla did a 1:5 split in 2004 and a 3:2 bonus during similar periods in the past.