The predictions of the month of March were again reasonable about general impetus to the market after budget: However, the markets had already run up prior to the budget and while the budget was great according to the industry (this prediction came true), the overall market sentiment did not keep up with the budget speech (prediction did not come true). Price rice and inflation worries: Inflation is down drastically and it is a cause for worry. Price rice is another worry as there were unseasonal rains, which have destroyed crops in many parts of India, including the states of Maharashatra, Punjab and Haryana.
Share prices of PSU banks will be on the rise. Private sector banks will benefit from this rally somewhat, but not as much as PSU banks.
This did not come true, the whole economy has a problem of slowing down. Still, these did better than rest of the market. The returns for the past the week are -1.60%, while past month returns were -7.40% and three month returns were -14.30%
Prediction 2: Premium real estate will go up till 15th: It did well, confirming the trend and thereafter fell flat. Metal was a big mistake with one week returns being -1.20%. Past month returns were -9.80%. I had tried to predict that this would be better than the rest of the market.
Uptrend in hotel business, paints and textiles will continue till 2nd week. From 2nd week onwards, these will remain flat, but at the same time, downtrend is not predicted. Expect uptrend on day trading basis on auto stocks. Expect further rise in Pharma & healthcare stocks in March 2015 also.
While the market was bad overall, these sectors did not do as badly as the rest of the market confirming the predictions. Pharma and healthcare ended up in positive with one month returns in 7.4%.
I am once again ready to stick my neck out in the month of April. This month, expect the markets to rise around April 15th in a secular way. Till 20th of April, the markets will move very fast and will move sideways based on rumours. Post that, there is a slow down expected. The overall IT & communication sector will fall. However, April will not give out a major trend throughout – neither sharp fall, nor sharp rise is expected.
Period from second half of April will turn good for FMCG and bank/financial stocks after a bad 1st week or 10 days in April. It does not indicate fast rise in this sector, but is a good time to start accumulating the stocks in this sector. But this sector on technical analysis, if you think bottom has been hit. Post 15th, auto sector will do good. The auto sector is expected to benefit further by NDA Government’s policies and will further rise in the month of April, and especially in the second half of the month. On day trading basis, paint, entertainment, cosmetics and hospitality sectors will do well in the month of April.
Silver and Gold will not maintain their shine. Downturn is expected in both. Gold is unlikely to recover for a longer period of time. Long term view is anyway of accumulation of Gold as it is few years before it starts on a rise.
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