Recap: Month of January was indeed a month of ups and downs. The momentum continued till 1st week of Feb. As predicted, trend changed both in first week of Feb and also around Feb 18th, exactly as noted in my February blog. Markets made a hammer/hanging man candlestick on 18th followed by a downtrend on 19th Feb. S&P BSE Auto Index has been showing uptrend and at the time of writing this blog, the 1 week, 1 month and 3 month gains were 1.3%, 0.9% and 5.4% respectively. Pharma index is gone up by 4% in last one month and healthcare by 4.5%h. Someone may say that I am picking examples in a market that is going secularly up, therefore – on the other hand, prediction was good for PSU sector also. While the 1 week gains at the time of writing the article were 0.7%, the 1 month and 3 month gains have been -2.6% and -1.4% respectively.
Hindu New Year starts on March 20th, which will be overall a tough year for stock market and speculators. Banking/Finance sector will be good. Investments in India will increase. However, there will be some holding back in the reforms sector (essentially the “expansion” of the Indian economy) and it will be below expectations.
There is an eclipse also on March 20th, but this not visible in India and other areas like US, Australia. The eclipse is visible in parts of Canada, European continent and in parts of Africa. The effect on Rashis for the benefit of readers from Europe will be detailed in a post shortly. The world economy will be affected and this eclipse will cause uptrend in textile exports, jewelry exports etc. The stock prices of companies all over the world that cater to such demand are predicted to go up.
During March 2015, expect the markets to maintain uptrend. The trend will become visible during the 3rd week of March and will continue well in the month of April. The budget is expected get some euphoria going. The government has been under quite a lot of attack from opposition over Delhi elections, inaction etc., which should be in a better situation from 15th March onwards. Inflation and price rise will still be a concern in the market post 15th March. Government will have to intervene to tackle the inflation. The effect of this intervention will be visible only in April.
PSUs sale announcements during budget on 28th Feb will give a necessary boost to the market. The share prices of PSU banks will be on the rise. Private sector banks will benefit from this rally somewhat, but not as much as PSU banks. Premium real estate will go up till 15th, so will metal & leather , cement and casting stocks. Uptrend in hotel business, paints and textiles will continue till 2nd week. From 2nd week onwards, these will remain flat, but at the same time, downtrend is not predicted. Expect uptrend on day trading basis on auto stocks. Expect further rise in Pharma & healthcare stocks in March 2015 also.
Oil has bottomed out by Mid February and gains are expected from now onwards. Although, many stock market pundits have been predicting that the current uptrend can be termed as “dead cat bounce”, I humbly and astrologically disagree with them.
During the 2nd week of March, extremist violence in Middle East will increase. This may have a negative effect on European stock markets.
Updates on March 4th: While there were no major announcements for sale of PSUs during the budget speech, the intent was amply clear from the fine print. The RBI did a surprise rate cut. As expected, PSU banks are trending higher than private banks. Read the Moneycontrol article here.
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